Trump threatens tariffs on Indian rice, but trade metrics show pain will be felt by the U.S.

Days before a U.S. team of negotiators is to visit India to discuss tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that he might hit India with further tariffs, this time on rice, to prevent it from “dumping” rice in the U.S.

However, an analysis of trade data between the two countries shows that such tariffs would hurt the U.S. far more than India, since the U.S. makes up about 3% of India’s total rice exports, whereas Indian rice comprises more than one-fourth of the rice imported into the U.S. 

In other words, the U.S. is not a major export destination for India, but India is a major import source for the U.S. when it comes to rice. 

The Hindu had recently reported that a U.S. team of negotiators led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer would be in New Delhi on December 10-12 to discuss tariffs with the Indian side. The U.S. is currently imposing a total of 50% tariffs on imports from India.

Mr. Trump made his rice tariff comments during a White House meeting during which he also unveiled a $12 billion package to support American farmers. 

In response to a complaint made by a farmers’ representative about India, Thailand and other countries allegedly dumping rice in the U.S., Mr. Trump asked the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent: “Why is India allowed to do that? They have to pay tariffs. Do they have an exemption on rice?”

Later, he said that the issue of dumping can be solved “so quickly with tariffs” on these countries that are “illegally shipping” into the U.S. 

‘Driven by domestic politics than trade logic’

According to data with the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India exported $391.74 million worth of rice to the U.S. in 2023-24, which makes up about 3.1% of India’s total rice shipments. India exports rice to 179 other countries. 

On the other hand, according to data from the World Integrated Trade Solutions website, India accounted for about 26% of the $1.6 billion worth of rice the U.S. imported in 2024. 

“President Trump’s threat on December 8 to impose new tariffs on Indian rice, announced alongside a U.S. farm relief package, looks driven more by domestic politics than by trade logic,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of think tank Global Trade Research Initiative, and former Director General of Foreign Trade said. 

“New duties would scarcely dent Indian exporters, who have strong markets elsewhere, but would make rice costlier for American households,” he added.

Mr. Srivastava further said that India should read this latest statement by Mr. Trump as election-season messaging to U.S. farmers, not a serious policy shift.