The growth momentum in Kerala’s population is expected to sustain till about 2041 after which there will begin a gradual decline. Life expectancy in Kerala is projected to go up from 75.1 years in 2026 to 82.9 years by 2051. By then, trends indicate that Kerala will “continue to remain India’s oldest State.”
These are among a set of population-related projections for Kerala in a new national-level report released this week by the Thiruvananthapuram-based International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) and Population Foundation of India (PFI). IIMAD chair S. Irudayarajan was principal investigator for the report and J. Retnakumar, the co-principal investigator.
Kerala population is projected to rise from 3.34 crore in 2011 to 3.58 crore (according to medium-variant projections) by 2026. From there to 2041, Kerala’s population is projected to reach 3.62 crore. From then on, it is likely to dip gradually to 3.55 crore by 2051, according to the report ‘Unravelling India’s Demographic Future: Population Projections for States and Union Territories 2021-2051.’
Projections for Kerala indicate that the percentage of people aged 60 and above in the State’s total population would increase from 18.6% in 2026 to 30.6% by 2051. Kerala’s median age will rise from 37 years to 47 during this period. Kerala will be amongst the States to touch the ‘floor total fertility rate (TFR) limit’ of 1.4 by 2051, it noted. The proportion of child population (0-14) was the largest in Bihar (30.3%) and lowest in Kerala (19.3%) in 2021. By the middle of this century, Bihar will continue to have the highest share of children at 22.6%, while Kerala’s share will decline to 12.8%, the lowest in the country.
The oldest-old
In 2021, Kerala had the largest percentage of the oldest-old (80+) at close to 2%. It is presumed that by 2051, Kerala will continue to have the largest share in this age group, at 6.4%, followed by Tamil Nadu at 5.2%. “According to our projections, Bihar will remain the youngest State in India, while Kerala will remain the oldest,” the report noted.
The report presents population projections in low, medium and high ‘variants’ to capture the range of demographic scenarios to reflect inherent uncertainties in the projections. The low and high variants delineate lower and upper limits of the projected population. The medium variant is designed to provide a realistic estimate of the future population, reflecting demographic trends most consistent with current trends. The ‘low variant’ indicates Kerala population would be at 3.57 crore in 2026 and at 3.49 crore by 2051. The ‘high variant’ puts these at 3.59 crore and 3.61 crore respectively. All indicate a decline after 2041.
Rapid urbanisation
The report also has an interesting take on Kerala’s urban-rural population ratio which stood at 47.7% and 52.3% in 2011. By 2051, this is projected to rise to 91.1% and 8.9% respectively, an apparent indicator of rapid urbanisation of the State.
According to the report, it drew on a range of demographic datasets, including the Census, the Sample Registration System, the National Family Health Survey, the Civil Registration System, and the National Sample Survey. The Cohort Component Method was applied to 22 States with a population in excess of six million, as enumerated in the 2011 Census.
Published – November 28, 2025 07:55 pm IST
