Leadership change: Congress high command carefully weighing multiple options

As loyalists of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy and KPCC chief D.K. Shivakumar continued to demand a Cabinet reshuffle and leadership change, respectively, the Congress high command appears to be weighing many options to end the ongoing stalemate.

Congress sources said that the party’s top leadership is likely to take a cautious approach based on the factors that hold good for the party in Karnataka, a major State where the party is in power. Himachal Pradesh and Telangana are other States the Congress is ruling.

Rajasthan example

A Karnataka-like situation occurred in the then Congress government in Rajasthan in 2020, following a tussle between then Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his deputy Sachin Pilot, and this was one of the factors for the defeat of the party in 2023.

Leaders maintained that the high command is expected to take some decisions in the next couple of days, as the political saga in the State is damaging the grand old party’s image and governance. With two southern States (Kerala and Tamil Nadu) and two northeastern States (Assam and West Bengal) going to polls in 2026, it is believed that the high command has to take firm decisions to show its control over State units.

Political commentator and political science professor Jayaramu P.S. argued that the Congress high command in the State faces a Hobson’s choice: whichever way it chooses to go, it will have to deal with the conflict situation between two top leaders.

“If it changes Mr. Siddaramaiah, he may create a problem for the party using his AHINDA vote bank. If Mr. Shivakumar is not made Chief Minister, he may form a regional party and seek BJP and JD(S) support,” he contended. “Will high command postpone the decision?” he asked on X.

While the final call rests with the high command, especially Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, the top brass is expected to take the decision after seeking clarity from both the camps. With a lot of political stake around the two leaders, the party appears to be exploring all aspects before summoning both leaders to Delhi.

Five possibilities

As the first option, the top brass might ask Mr. Siddaramaiah to continue till the end of the Budget session of the legislature (March, 2026), providing him an opportunity to break the longest Chief Ministerial tenure record held by Devraj Urs and offer him a graceful exit. This would also ensure smooth transfer of power to Mr. Shivakumar. Till then, both camp leaders may be directed to control their supporters.

The second option is that the high command would ask Mr. Siddaramaiah to keep his so-called promise given by him during the formation of the government in May 2023, and allow Mr. Shivakumar to occupy the top post. In that case, Mr. Siddaramaiah might impose conditions and ask the leadership to induct his loyalists in the Cabinet and appoint his nominee for the KPCC chief.

In case both leaders declined to budge from their demands, then the third option would be asking both Mr. Siddaramaiah and Mr. Shivakumar to show their strength in the Congress Legislature Party meeting, and whoever mustered the highest support of MLAs would be asked to hold the top post.

The fourth alternative seems to be no transfer of power and allowing Mr. Siddaramaiah to undertake the Cabinet reshuffle. He would also be asked to continue in the same post till 2028 with the condition that the next Assembly elections would be held under the leadership of Mr. Shivakumar and he would be projected as the Chief Minister face. No loyalist ministers of Mr. Siddaramaiah would be allowed to enter the Chief Minister race. Mr. Shivakumar would be asked to continue in the KPCC chief and the Deputy Chief Minister posts.

If the impasse becomes uncontrollable, as the last option, the high command might ask AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge to return to the State to head the government. Already some leaders close to Mr. Kharge have started floating his name. This would also fulfil the Dalit leaders’ demand for a Dalit Chief Minister, sources in the party said.