New IIMAD, PFI report provide insights into population growth trends in Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar island groups

The populations of India’s island territories, Lakshadweep Islands and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, are projected to increase by 9.68% and 5.73% by 2051, according to a new national-level report recently released by the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) and the Population Foundation of India (PFI).

The population of Lakshadweep, a string of islands in the Arabian sea, is projected to go up from 67,642 in 2016 to 74,194 in 2051. Likewise, the population of Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal is projected to rise from 3,98,310 to 4,21,135 during the same period, according to the report Unravelling India’s Demographic Future: Population Projections for States and Union Territories 2021-2051.

S. Irudaya Rajan, chair of the Kerala-based IIMAD was the principal investigator for the report and J. Retnakumar, the co-principal investigator. The report, which provides a national perspective as well as State and Union Territory (UT)-wise projections, has used a different approach for making projections for the smaller States and UTs.

“The decadal growth rates of population in most of the smaller States and the UTs are erratic and no clear trend in the growth rates is discernible. Moreover, the Sample Registration System (SRS) does not consistently provide the essential demographic inputs needed for population projections for these territories,” the report notes.

Due to this limitation, the report employs mathematical methods—specifically curve fitting using logistic methods—to project their populations.

Gender-wise projections

Gender-wise projections show that the male population would increase from 34,716 in 2016 to 37,785 in 2051 and the female population from 32,926 to 36,319 in Lakshadweep. In the case of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the male population is projected to go up from 2,13,467 in 2016 to 2,26,139 in 2051 and female population from 1,84,843 to 1,94,996.

For arriving at the projections, the report drew on demographic datasets including the Census, SRS, National Family Health Survey, Civil Registration System and the National Sample Survey.