Tejas aircraft crash in Dubai sparks speculation over its export prospects

The recent crash of an Indian Air Force (IAF) Tejas fighter aircraft at the Dubai air show has triggered a wave of speculation on social media, with many users terming the mishap a setback for India’s flagship defence export platform.

On Sunday, an IAF team reached Dubai to conduct a joint investigation with the UAE authorities. While no evidence of foul play has emerged so far, online discussions have intensified, demanding a thorough probe into the circumstances surrounding the incident.

Several hashtags gained traction, amplifying theories about sabotage and external interference. A fabricated social media post also claimed that an oil leak had been detected on the Tejas before the flight. However, a PIB Fact Check clarified that the allegation was false, stating that the fluid seen in the video was part of a routine draining process, not a technical malfunction.

A senior official monitoring misinformation campaigns said numerous accounts — operating from neighbouring countries — were found circulating misleading narratives about the crash. The heightened military cooperation between China and Pakistan, especially in defence technology, has also been frequently referenced in online discussions around the incident.

Aviation experts, however, cautioned against premature conclusions until the joint investigation report is released.

“IAF has full confidence in the aircraft; that’s why they are flying it. The only issue is HAL’s inability to meet delivery timelines. If we cannot meet our own timelines, how can we export?” said Air Vice Marshal Anil Golani (retd.), Director General of the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS).

Impeccable record

Air Vice Marshal Golani added that incidents during development or early induction phases are not unusual. “Tejas has had an impeccable record. It was inducted in 2016, and till 2024 not a single incident occurred. Its safety record is excellent.”

On the export potential of Tejas, he said India must first prioritise domestic requirements. “Our first priority should be to fulfil our own needs. IAF has already placed orders for 220 Tejas aircraft. There are many powers in the world trying to pull India down.”

According to the Ministry of Defence, India’s indigenous defence production reached a record ₹1,27,434 crore in FY 2023–24, a 174% jump from 2014–15. India now exports military equipment to over 100 countries, including the United States, France, and Armenia. Defence PSUs accounted for 77% of total output, while the private sector contributed 23%.

With the retirement of its last MiG-21 squadrons — No. 23 Panthers and No. 3 Cobras — the IAF’s strength has dipped to 29 fighter squadrons, its lowest since the 1960s, against a sanctioned 42.

To bridge the gap, the force is relying heavily on the phased induction of the Tejas. The aircraft currently serves with No. 45 Flying Daggers and No. 18 Flying Bullets at Sulur, with more squadrons planned.

The upgraded Tejas Mk-1A, featuring advanced radar, enhanced electronic warfare systems, and improved maintainability, is expected to significantly boost IAF capability. However, delivery delays persist. In February, IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh criticised HAL for slipping schedules.

“Hungry mouths are ready; we are waiting for the food,” he said, stressing that the IAF requires at least 30–40 aircraft every year to maintain optimal squadron strength.

On October 17, the first LCA Tejas Mark 1A from the new Nashik production line completed its maiden flight but still to be inducted by IAF.

Meanwhile, the more advanced LCA Mk-2, meant to replace the Mirage-2000, Jaguar, and MiG-29 fleets, is still under development. First conceptualised in 2012, its prototype has been repeatedly delayed, with production now expected around 2026.