The story so far:
“If paradise is to be found on earth, Kashmir is it.” Yet today, Kashmir’s paradise is fraying — and in Srinagar, we find the fault-lines of a regional economy at a crossroads: between beauty and breakdown; between traditional livelihoods and externally imposed growth models. Srinagar is facing mounting ecological stress, weakening traditional sectors, and the after-effects of governance disruptions since the dilution of Article 370. Wetland loss, supply-chain breakdowns, urban sprawl, and joblessness have intensified economic fragility.
Why is Srinagar ecologically fragile?
Srinagar, nestled in a Himalayan valley, carries deep ecological vulnerabilities. Wetlands, lakes, and mountains have kept the city alive — as a horticultural belt, tourist beacon, and artisan hub. But unchecked urban expansion, sprawl, flood risk, and infrastructure stress are now compromising that fragile base. A local report notes that formerly natural sponges have been overtaken by construction; “encroached wetlands and choked drains… amplify flood damage, while unchecked sprawl hikes living costs.”
Meanwhile, the horticulture sector — once a pillar of Kashmir’s rural-urban interface — has been hammered. One study points out that despite the abrogation of special status, the annual growth rate slumped, supply chains broke down, and the backbone of thousands of livelihoods cracked.
What changed after the dilution of Article 370?
Since the dilution of Article 370 in August 2019, the region has experienced a dramatic governance shift. The dissolution of the Statehood status, communication blackouts and prolonged curfews have disrupted not only everyday life but also economic institutions. For instance, a qualitative study of women entrepreneurs in Srinagar and Ganderbal shows how the communication blackout, network restrictions and lockdowns crushed their ability to market crafts, connect with customers, and sustain a business.
In Srinagar, the private sector has remained stunted, while over 32,000 government posts remain unfilled as of March 2025. Urban unemployment stands at 11.8%, youth unemployment at 32%, and women’s unemployment at 53.6%.
Then came the collapse of the three pillars: tourism, horticulture, and artisan trades.
Tourism is projected as the engine of revival, yet it remains highly seasonal and vulnerable.
A recent article reports that in 2025 alone, landslides and highway closures stranded 800+ fruit trucks, resulting in over ₹200 crore losses in a few days — demonstrating the fragility of the entire local supply chain.
Supply disruptions, climate risk, poor market access, and policy neglect have reduced horticulture’s share in GDP and hampered its role as a stable driver.
Artisan trades are similarly suffering. A qualitative study found that women artisans in the handicraft industry face exploitation, lack of access to markets, scarcity of raw materials, and breakdown in supply chains. Many street vendors and women workers in informal markets earn as little as ₹250–300 a day.
Economic disruptions have pushed certain marginalised and transgender communities into sex work, as other income sources disappear.
Why does the metropolitan capital infusion model fall short?
Many growth plans for Srinagar treat it as a recipient of large capital flows — real estate, tourism mega-projects, urban infrastructure — on the assumption that spending automatically leads to upliftment. But when local governance is weak, traditional livelihoods are ignored, and the ecological base is compromised, this model fails.
In Srinagar’s “smart city” push, for example, artisan spaces and vendors are often squeezed out while the facade beautifies; green spaces vanish, older trees are removed; livelihoods are disrupted.
Hence, unless growth anchors itself in the local economy, the “integration into a metropolitan capital” approach risks increasing fragility rather than alleviating it.
What are the plausible directions for sustainable growth?
Horticulture requires reliable cold-chain infrastructure, climate-adapted crops, and farmer cooperatives. Wetlands, floodplains, and lake systems must be protected and integrated into urban planning. Instead of sprawl, we should invest in green infrastructure.
Tourism can grow through community-led, heritage-based, and ecologically sensitive models that place artisans and local hosts at the centre.
Srinagar’s artisan and craft-based economy needs institutional support that values its cultural depth. Traditional clusters of weavers, shawl-makers, wood-craft workers, papier-mâché artists and brassware makers require design assistance, accessible digital marketing channels and systems that reduce dependence on exploitative intermediaries. The State must also facilitate micro-finance, raw-material common-pools, craft-export linkages, and protection of workshop spaces rather than treating artisan neighbourhoods as “peripheral” to modern development.
Urban planning should integrate artisan quarters, preserve workshops, not criminalise street vendors or force them into oblivion. What Srinagar needs is a managed transition rather than displacing them.
Restoring meaningful local governance is essential for any sustainable economic revival. Without a local voice, top-down capital flows will only deepen alienation.
State policy should ensure reliable connectivity, functional marketing platforms, skill upgrades, and helplines for women entrepreneurs.
The growth slump and joblessness have pushed vulnerable groups into the margins. A coordinated social protection, vocational training and livelihood diversification strategy is needed.
Most importantly, Srinagar’s future depends on building a balanced economic base rather than relying on tourism or real estate alone.
Horticulture, artisanship, small-scale manufacturing, niche tourism and services must grow together to reduce vulnerability. For example, horticulture alone engages more than three million people in the region, and ignoring it weakens the entire economic foundation.
Tourism, meanwhile, should be made resilient to frequent disruptions through stronger links with local crafts, digital outreach, homestays, and off-season offerings.
Urban job creation should focus not just on high-capital projects but on upgrading the informal economy and creating linkages with village-town interactions.
What does all this mean for Srinagar’s future?
Srinagar is at an inflection point. It strains under the weight of ecological, economic and governance vulnerabilities. To restore its promise, growth cannot simply mean “capital inflow and smart city facade”. It calls for reviving the soils, the workshops, the crafts homes of Srinagar, listening to its women entrepreneurs, artisans, and small farmers; empowering them through connectivity, governance, market access, and ecological protection.
In doing so, we shift from fragility to resilience — from a “metropolitan cash-influx” model to a locally rooted, sustainably scaled economy.
The question for policymakers, for civil society, for the local economy is: Will we walk that path — or will Srinagar’s paradise slip through our fingers?
Tikender Singh Panwar is a former Deputy Mayor of Shimla and currently a member of the Kerala Urban Commission
