Jammu and Kashmir’s mountainous region of Kishtwar, which saw deaths of at least 65 civilians on August 14 due to likely Glacial Retreat and Lake Formation (GLOF), remained the most vulnerable district of the Union Territory (UT), warned the Disaster Management Plan 2024-25 for Kishtwar in its latest report.
“GLOFs present a significant hazard to Kishtwar district, particularly impacting the tehsils of Padder, Machail, Dachhan, Marwah, and Warwan, along with areas near the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park. These regions are especially vulnerable due to their proximity to glacial lakes, making them prone to sudden flooding events that can have devastating impacts on local communities, infrastructure, and the environment,” the report said.
At least 65 civilians died, over 100 were injured and around 33 missing after likely GLOF burst hit Kishtwar’s Chisoti village on August 14. It was the first major GLOF induced incident reported from the district.
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The official report, prepared by Rajesh Kumar Shavan (JKAS), District Magistrate, Kishtwar, warned that key infrastructure in Padder, Machail, Dachhan, and Marwah tehsils—including roads, government buildings, schools, and hospitals are at considerable risk. “The tehsils of Marwah and Warwan, often designated as “Shadow Areas” due to their remoteness, houses low-lying settlements and agricultural communities that face increased vulnerability due to limited disaster preparedness and emergency response capacities,” the report said.
It also warned that the ongoing hydroelectric projects under Chenab Valley Power Projects (CVPPL Limited), such as Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Dangduru “are also at high risk from GLOF events”. “Rising water levels or potential dam breaches could threaten project infrastructure, disrupt operations, and increase downstream flood risk. In addition, GLOFs threaten the district’s road network and key access routes, which are essential for transportation and evacuation, potentially isolating communities during crises,” the report said.
It further underlined that environmental impacts are also a concern, particularly for the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park, “where ecosystem disruption, habitat loss, and biodiversity threats are potential outcomes”. “Contamination of local water sources due to floodwaters could further impact public health and ecological balance,” it added.
Impact of global warming
The Kishtwar Himalayas have witnessed significant glacial lake expansion in recent decades, largely driven by global warming. As glaciers in the region retreat, new glacial lakes form and existing ones expand, heightening the risk of GLOFs. “There is a rapid loss of glacial mass in the Chenab River Basin due to climate change. This loss is of particular concern because many of the newly formed glacial lakes are held behind unstable moraine dams, which can fail catastrophically under stress from increased water levels, seismic activity, or further glacial retreat,” the report highlighted.
It said the risk of GLOFs underscores the urgent need for regular monitoring and risk mitigation strategies to protect communities in the Kishtwar region. It pointed out the expansion of Mundiksar Lake in the last 40 years.
The report suggested that the risk of GLOFs in Kishtwar arises from the combination of natural factors and climatic conditions that influence glacial lakes’ behaviour. “Lakes such as Mundiksar Lake and Hangu Lake, both classified as high-risk, are prime examples of expanding lakes in this region. This expansion heightens the potential for catastrophic dam failure. Many glacial lakes are formed behind moraine dams, which consist of unconsolidated glacial debris. These natural dams are prone to failure due to their unstable structure. Factors such as increased water pressure from lake expansion, earthquakes, or heavy rainfall can lead to sudden breaches, causing GLOFs. Lakes like Patla Pani categorized as moderate-risk, are also susceptible to GLOFs if their moraine dams fail,” the report said.
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Prone to earthquakes
It further warned that Kishtwar, which lies in a seismically active region Zone (IV), makes the moraine dams more vulnerable to collapse during earthquakes. The district is notable for having the highest number of glacial lakes in Jammu and Kashmir, with a total of 197 lakes which accounts for 36.08% of all glacial lakes in the Union Territory. “These lakes cover an area of approximately 392.64 hectares, representing 13.63% of the total lake area in the district. A significant majority of these lakes — about 90.86% — are smaller than 5 hectares, collectively comprising 46.57% of the total lake area. In contrast, larger lakes, those exceeding 5 hectares, are less common, with most falling within the 5-10 hectare range,” the report highlighted.
The report called for regular monitoring and early warning systems by expanding the use of satellite-based remote sensing technologies, establishment of early warning systems (EWS) to predict weather conditions that could trigger GLOFs and strengthening and draining moraine dams in cases where glacial lakes pose an imminent threat.
It also stressed on the education of local communities in Kishtwar about the risks of GLOFs and trained in emergency response. “These campaigns should be accompanied by simulation drills to ensure the community is well-prepared in the event of an actual GLOF,” it said.
Published – September 02, 2025 01:16 am IST
